Hermance Capital
Chattanooga, Tennessee
An automotive-and-logistics hub with a receding supply pipeline — appealing drivers offset by a soft recent jobs read.
Why Chattanooga
Chattanooga blends advanced manufacturing (a major Volkswagen assembly plant and its supplier base), logistics, and a nationally known outdoor-recreation economy, supported by one of the country’s fastest municipal broadband networks.
Multifamily supply is easing meaningfully — 2026 completions are forecast at roughly a third of 2025’s — which should relieve pressure on rents as the recent wave is absorbed.
What we’re watching
Two readings keep us patient.
Jobs. Employment slipped slightly year-over-year (−0.2%), a soft spot we’re watching for whether it’s noise or a trend.
Affordability. Rent-to-income at 23.1% sits toward the high end of our set.
How this fits our box
We’re looking for 20–50 unit, B/C, 1985–2010-vintage value-add communities in the $2M–$8M range, priced so a light reposition clears our gates: positive leverage from day one, at least $100 per unit per month in real cash flow, and debt-service coverage we won’t stretch to hit. Every sponsor calls their underwriting conservative; we’d rather show you the gates than claim the adjective.
Sources & caveats
Jobs — BLS Current Employment Statistics (metro), May 2026 preliminary, subject to revision. Population — U.S. Census Vintage 2025 CBSA estimates (2024→2025). Rent-to-income — Zillow NRAR (May 2026); back-series was rebased and isn’t comparable to pre-2026 values. Supply — broker/research reports, Q2 2025–Q2 2026. This page is general market information, not investment advice or an offer of securities, and describes the metro rather than any specific property. Refreshed quarterly.
Own or broker in Chattanooga?
We’re not actively sourcing Chattanooga today, but we track it closely and screen every inbound deal — same fast, straight read. If it fits (20–50 units, B/C), send it.
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