# Wilmington, North Carolina — Target Market

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**Status: On the watch list.** Fast in-migration and a contracting construction pipeline — a coastal growth story we track, with an affordability and vacancy overhang to digest.

## The numbers (data as of July 2026)

| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Jobs y/y | +2.0% | BLS CES, May 2026 (prelim) |
| Population y/y | +2.58% | Census Vintage 2025 |
| Rent-to-income | 24.5% | Zillow NRAR, May 2026 |
| Supply pipeline | Contracting | U/C down 63% y/y; 16.3% vacancy |

## Why Wilmington

Wilmington pairs coastal quality-of-life with a diversifying economy — a working port, a growing healthcare system, film production, and steady retiree and remote-worker in-migration that pushed population up 2.58% year-over-year, among the highest in our set.

New construction has pulled back sharply (under-construction down 63% year-over-year), which should let the market absorb its recent supply wave over time.

## What we’re watching

The near-term picture asks for patience.

- **Vacancy.** A 16.3% vacancy rate following the recent delivery surge means concessions and slower lease-up until the excess is absorbed.
- **Affordability.** Rent-to-income at 24.5% is the highest on our watch list, which caps how hard rents can push from here.

## How this fits our box

20–50 units, B/C, 1985–2010 vintage, value-add, $2M–$8M — priced so a light reposition clears the gates: positive leverage from day one, ≥$100/unit/month in real cash flow, debt-service coverage we won’t stretch. Every sponsor calls their underwriting conservative; we’d rather [show you the gates](https://hermance.capital/learn/how-to-vet-a-sponsor) than claim the adjective.

*General market information, not investment advice or an offer of securities. Describes the metro, not any specific property. Refreshed quarterly.*